Doing Tha' Deal

Revenage Trading.....

I think at some point, trading evolves, well the mistakes you make evolve.

Let's take revenge trading for example..............

I no longer try to "win back my loses" - cant do that.

I have started to get mad at missing big moves......have to stop that.

Today has been a see-saw day.......

Down 30 pips on the day

Going down down down - Short Play

I'm goin down, down, down, down
I'm goin down, down, down, down
I'm goin down, down, down, down
I'm goin down, down, down, down
 - Bruce Springsteen 

Price made a new lower high on the 1 h chart

Looked down to the lower time frame - making new lows - became a S/R trade following a momo

 
Shorted at 32.04  added at 31.85 - covered at 31.79

Total of 32 pips

Pip total for the day - 50 .........done

My New Hero.

Ok, maybe not my hero, but someone worth reading

Don Miller              

Sunday Morning Practice..........

Price eventually hit my target from yesterday, but not without just "knocking" me out along the way. - the reason why I would rather position play

So here is what I see so far

Go long at 114.80 - stop @ 65 goal is 15.09

in trade - target hit - 29 pips

 

Now we have a big momentum bar - let it close off  - looking for a z line trade if price falls to the 115 region - marked it with a red line.  if this doesnt happen........ look for a long trade above the momentum bar in a few periods from now

 

Z line trade is a no go  - small bear bar formed (at the time it was small)  - looking for long of off up support - sl is 115.10 - target will be 115.55 - look for long entry at 115.30 - although some wicks are starting to form to the top - price may fall down to the  114.80 area if it goes thru a 50% retrace- prices is falling

looks like i had to change my opinion

 

looking for short entry now after a week bull bar (became a strong bull)- will see price wick back (didnt happen) - short at 114.96 target 114.40 - sl 115.12 - price is falling   - killed last breakout profits - out at 65 - 47 pips

Two trades

76 pips

Practice makes perfect

In this image - the 3 was at the high with the check mark -and then came back down - was looking for a play off of support following the big moment up push up

- support formed at 115. with

wicks towards losses - in at 115. 20 - out at 60

Another big momentum bar just formed and closed - will look for a few things - will fall a bit and consolidate and resume its upward path - look for downward momentum to stall - there will.. be some wicks - hopefully a one will form - or price will plummet

If price falls by 30 -will buy it - Z line trade - in for one candle only - hugging the momentum candle.  It fell buy at 115.59 - 20 pip sl - bought a lower red line - close - 74 - 15 pips

Price started to fall - seemed to find support at previous high - long wick high where the 3 was - candle closed town - but momentum was decreased compared to previous bear candle- continued falling though - zeroed out the break out candle - dont get too excited - im thinking that we will see another run at the high and will play off that  second  run (in retrospect this did not happen)

The bars right now coming off the 3 have some good range to them - so i dont think I'm seeing a real consolidation and a turn down yet - there was probably a good entry on a lower time frame, but i'm not looking at that - i'm also not seeing enough of a push against the 116 level to go for a long ride down - will look for some long bull bars that don't break the res line before i consider shorting

Starting to see some wicks at the 115.30 area short if price hits 115.20 - previous bull candle had no momentum - 5 period low.  short hit @115. 20 target is 114.55 - Sl is 115.30 - Running into some support @ 115.xx area

I

Candle closed in my favor - new low on next candle at 115

Next candle was a small bull candle - closed at 15.18 - +2 pips - would have closed if it hit - 10

 - trade going my way again - new 5 period low...........

Falling - a new 13 period low at 85 time to bail - 45 pips

bored

I will let simulator run - see if my target gets hit

Practice total - three trades

40

15

45

total of 100 - total nerd Saturday night

Fun with stats...............

From MO on Kreslik.......

This is the formula I am considering for trading the DFSR:

(in shorthand of course)

TF RANGE(1 week) for ATR

EXAMPLE: 15m 480 bars, 60m 120 bars, 240m 30 bars, 1440m 5 bars, etc.
TF RANGE is based on the TF of the candle I am trading.

ATR / 2 + ATR / 5 = SL

ATR / 2 = ATR * 0.50

ATR / 5 = ATR * 0.20


ATR * 0.70 = SL

DFSR Reversal in Pips = SL / 2


SIMPLE.

Then Scalp with .67 SL for target

and trigger on a reversal is 50% of SL or  35% of ATR

Leading and Lagging

When you have spent the last 6 months learning to trade currencies, using a lagging indicator seems archaic and misguided, as evidence by my fun with something called a SHI channel plugin this week.  While the channel pivots on the "2" and "3" of the semaphore (and sometimes the "1" on the larger time frames), it usually does so after the fact.  It is kinda like that back seat driver who says you should have taken "THAT" left turn..........

So what have I learned this week:

1. Wait for the period candle that I am using to judge my entry to close (H1, H4 etc).  I don't know why this really matters but it seems to.  I suspect that it has to do with market momentuum slowing down (I am essentially trying to catch reversals)
2. Look how things line up on the next higher time.  If the higher timeframe is showing the same signal, you can go for a longer ride.
3. When using H1, enter off the candle that starts after a 2 or 3 forms - this marks a 13 or 34 period high or low (can use either a stop or limit entry - limit entry cuts down your risk, but doesn't guarantee a fill - so you may end up hitting it on a stop entry if your limit doesn't get hit - also depends when you get to the party and when you see the original signal and if an exit has been hit).  The stop loss is the low/high of the candle with the original marker.
4. You can draw in  trendlines connecting highs and lows (2s and 3s) that will often predict how the shi channel will flip - can use this as a confirmation of your entries.

Let's do some prognostication with the EUR/USD for our first trade of next week

First the 1 hour chart

On friday mid afternoon, this chart showed a downward slopping red channel - then the two formed (also made 1 on the H4).  Went long in the next candle when price went up
- past 1.2890 - SL for the trade was .2862 - Out in the 2910/20 area.  If you look at the H4 chart, I am getting a feeling that price will be heading down after a short run up

On the H4, price made a new 5 period low and is coming back up to my go short signal - So i suspect this bull run is short up to the 1.30 region at the highest

More More Semaphore

Some Hows and How Nots............

Looking At the EURJPY pair.

Large run up to the top of the channel - kept pushing a large three up higher and higher (currently a 1 on the chart).  Don't try and go short off of this 3, evenwhen it hits the top of the channel - wait for a retrace and a 1 to form..............then a new 3 - play this three.

Wait for the candle that forms the 3 to close - go short on the next candle - use the high of the 3 as a stop loss

Will go short next hour - downward slopping channel give me more confidence.  Additionally, the 4h and daily chart are slopping down.  Tempted to go in before the hour closes, but it saves me some pips on the SL.

 

Things I have learned this week........

yes, you can do the following:

1. play with no stop loss; and
2. play with a giant stop loss.

But you need patience and a cast iron stomach - the market sometimes takes a longgggggggggggggggggggg time to come around.

About even on the week after some large drawdown on monday working thru my "little" stop loss experiment (it wasn't that bad LT) - really starting to see other plays off the semaphore when playing it in conjunction with a channel.

Moving on up.............

Will go with a 2% risk for the trades this week - will keep playing the semiphor patterns - will start risk adjusting trades next week from 1 to 4% of the portfolio

Lots of JPY stats today - current account balance - if surplus is higher - look for a bump up in jpy -forecast is lower - 400 bn yn - down from 500 bn - bank lending was 3.7% and M2 is coming out