Doing Tha' Deal

A Crappy Day

Finished down 50 pips - really just two trades against me - One was a statistical fluke and the other was an experiment gone wrong

Today's mistakes - getting impatient - I need to stick to my signals,  Also I tried to trade against the day candle rather the 30 or 60 minute candle - would have eventually turned, but I suspect the differential was too great for the relationship to be impactful.

 although I did notice two thing today

1. If the first minute of a 30 minute candle opens one way, the 30 minute candle tends to close that way (this may not happen until near the end of the time period.  In other words if a candle opens short, go short, if a candle opens long, go long - well not quite - look for these moves in conjunction with long and short indicators, unless there are no indicators around if price has been surging up or down, and
2. If you get an indication to go one way, but the candle moves against you initially, subtract the amount of that move from your take profit level when the candle finally confirms your entry.  You will get a profit opportunity, but the 30 minute candle will probably close against you if you try and ride it.

Deconstructing the Euro USD

Let's take a look at some Hourly Statistics for the Euro/USD Pair

Last 960 Hours
Max Range 285 Pips
Min Range 9 Pips
Average 50 pips

Range Count: 81% ranged between 0 and 70 pips

Last 480 Hours
Max Range 285 Pips
Min Range 9 Pips
Average 50 pips

Range Count: 82% ranged between 0 and 70 Pips

Last 240 Hours

Max Range 285 Pips
Min Range 9 Pips
Average 54.83 pips

Range Count: 76% ranged between 0 and 70 Pips

Last 120 Hours

Max Range 152 Pips
Min Range 9 Pips
Average 47 pips

Range Count: 82% ranged between 0 and 70 Pips

Last 24 Hours

Max Range 88 Pips
Min Range 26 Pips
Average 50 pips

Range Count: 83% ranged between 0 and 70 Pips

And Now for some Five Minute Stats

Last 960 Hours
Max Range 144 Pips
Min Range 0 Pips
Average 12.83 pips

Range Count: 16% ranged beyond 20 pips

Last 480 Hours
Max Range 94 Pips
Min Range 0 Pips
Average 12.26 pips

Range Count: 16.2% ranged beyond 20 pips

Last 240 Hours
Max Range 81 Pips
Min Range 0 Pips
Average 12.1 pips

Range Count: 15% ranged beyond 20 pips

Last 120 Hours
Max Range 50 Pips
Min Range 1 Pips
Average 12.15 pips

Range Count: 15.5% ranged beyond 20 pips

So what does this all mean.  Not sure but this is what I draw from it. Despite the changes in range - average moves stay the same over the different time frames.  The other thing I think I know is that on the "average" , the price range per period of time is rarely distributed around zero, it is usually lopsided in the direction of the greatest move - in other words, most of the range is in one direction.  Also, depending on where you enter relative to a prices normal range of movement, there is only so much profit you can expect to earn.  In other words, the earlier you enter a trade in relation to its normal range of movement, the larger amount of profit you can expect to earn.  The other consideration is the daily bias.  Is today up or down relative to the open.  If price has been down all day and you are going long, your up moves are going to be a little smaller than your down moves - be prepared to take less profit - say 50% less than your standard TP level